The President is back... or is he???

President Umaru Musa Yar’adua returned to the country early yesterday in the same manner he left for Saudi Arabia three months before, to the day: in the dark, and secretive. And equally effectively as in his departure, Yar’adua’s return has thrown up many imponderables in the nation’s political equation. On November 23, the nation was informed through a statement issued by presidential spokesman, Mr Olusegun Adeniyi, that Yar’adua was leaving for Saudi Arabia for medical check-up. The serious nature of the president’s medical condition was already then a hot topic in national discourse. Even so, Adeniyi’s announcement jolted the nation, and set off chains of events that are still being felt today. The National Assembly has since procured a piece of legislation that on closer examination may appear to be against the spirit and letter of the constitution, namely the resolutions, taken separately by the Senate and House of Representatives, providing cover for Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to assume executive powers of the president, but to do so in acting capacity. In the absence of a written letter by Yar’adua notifying the National Assembly of his intention to proceed on a prolonged medical vacation, the legislatures relied, ever so tenuously, on the transcripts of a translation of Yar’adua’s statements made in a brief interview with the Hausa service of the BBC, as a good and authentic enough substitute for a written letter under the official seal of the President of the Federal Republic, and bearing Yar’adua’s signature. If the resolutions of the National Assembly had no basis in law, given the constitutional requirement for declaring the president incapacitated or appointing the vice president to take over his duties (without his written say-so), it would appear that Jonathan was dressed in borrowed (some might say stolen) robes in the name of dowsing a media-generated frenzy over “power vacuum” in the country’s leadership. Because of the near-total absence of reliable information on the president’s condition, and the preponderance of speculative data, it came to a point that even among top government officials that Yar’adua was either incapacitated by being brain-dead, or was in fact dead. Perhaps only members of the National Assembly would not acknowledge that their action was self-serving, and that it had nothing to do with preserving the constitution while addressing the problem that confronts the nation. The sharing of the spoils of office was already underway. Yar’adua loyalist Michael Aondoakaa, minister of Justice and Attorney General, was the immediate casualty. With new bosses in charge, he cannot be in the kitchen cabinet. Others were awaiting their turn, because there were talks of a cabinet shake-up, a dramatic move that would have been unthinkable in the circumstances. While Jonathan waved the National Assembly resolutions as evidence of his right to exercise presidential powers, the question of how far the resolutions go to cover his actions has never been resolved. As acting president could he, for instance change the composition of the cabinet? As we have seen in his virtually unilateral action in varying the decision of the Federal Executive Council regarding the transfer of funds by law appropriated for the dredging of the River Niger, and diverting them to the Ministry of the Niger Delta, Jonathan is as keen in consolidating his position as Yar’adua (or his coterie of close confidants) is determined to hold on to his office. The result is that there is an undeniable schism between the Yar’adua camp and Jonathan’s.  Resolving this will determine what power bloc emerges as we approach the next general elections. In what shape is Yar’adua, health wise?  To what extent can he function in his office as president, and sustain the status quo until those elections? With the intense struggle for power that will now ensue, the Yar’adua camp will be content to go along with the staus quo, and effectively trumping any notion of Jonathan becoming president now, or as presidential candidate of the ruling party in the 2011 elections.